The current guidance issued to Operating Autorities comes from Defra and is based upon the work of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change and the Defra-sponsored UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP).
The net sea level rises are shown below (in mm per year) and
now reflect an exponential curve as opposed to the previous straight line graph
| Region | Land Movement mm/yr | 1990-2025 | 2025-2055 | 2055-2085 | 2085-2115 | prev allowance |
|
East of England, East Midlands, London, SE>BR> England (south of Flamborough Head) |
-0.8 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 6 (constant) |
| South West and Wales | -0.5 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 14.5 | 5 (constant) |
|
NW England, NE England Scotland (north of Flamborough Head) |
+0.8 | 2.5 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 4 (constant) |
The full climate change update note issued by Defra can be downloaded by clicking below.
The previous guidance had changed little prior to the update in April 2003 (shown below) when extra 'sensitivity testing'
was introduced.
Download PDF: Climate change update Oct '06. (72k)
Right-click and select "Save Link/Target As..." if
the PDF is launched in your browser rather than being saved.
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| Parameter | Recommendation | Comment |
|
Mean and extreme sea levels EA Regions - Anglian, Thames, Southern and North East (South of Flamborough Head) EA Regions - North West and North East (North of Flamborough Head) South West and Wales |
.
6 mm / year
4 mm / year
5 mm / year |
As previously - however, extreme levels should be reviewed if higher extreme values, especially around the Thames Estuary are supported by future modelling |
| High and extreme rainfall and river flow | Test sensitivity to additional 20% in peak flow or volume over 50 years | No change though further research currently in progress |
| High and extreme wind speeds | Test sensitivity to 10% increase in offshore wind speeds and wave heights by 2080s (and 5% increase in wave periods) | New recommendation - needs to be considered in relation to depth limited conditions inshore |
The full climate change update note issued by Defra can be downloaded by clicking below.
For more information about the content of these pages, please contact
coastal.defence@arun.gov.uk.
Download PDF: Climate change update note. (62k)
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